Magellan Infrastructure Quarterly Update
(Please find CPD Quiz below)
Key Takeaways
[00:00:25] Could you discuss the performance of the funds and the key factors influencing it?
The fund's performance over the last 12 months was in line with expectations, achieving CPI plus 4-5%. Most of this performance came in the September quarter, driven by the defensive characteristics and diversification benefits of high-quality infrastructure investments during market downturns. Despite this, the fund underperformed the index due to the exclusion of certain stocks, such as oil and gas pipelines, which contributed significantly to the benchmark's performance. Volatile interest rates throughout the year also impacted results, but the market's appreciation for the fund's defensive qualities helped maintain overall performance.
[00:02:37] How did the utilities sector perform over the year, and specifically our focus on utilities and transport infrastructure?
In 2024, the utilities in the strategy delivered highly predictable results, aligning closely with management's guidance from almost a year ago. These investments are evolving in line with long-term earnings growth expectations. Reflecting on the long-term fundamentals of our utility holdings, 2024 not only held steady but saw improvement. For example, UK water utilities are set to benefit from unprecedented investment levels and higher capital costs over the next five years, leading to the fastest earnings growth since privatisation in the 1980s.
Electric utilities also saw strong tailwinds from the need to replace aging infrastructure and decarbonise power systems. This was reinforced by a resurgence in electric demand growth, with integrated power companies revising their resource plans to reflect significant increases in expected load growth. This trend supports substantial upgrades in utility capital plans. For instance, WEC Energy revised its capital plan by 18%, National Grid planned to spend £60 billion over five years, and Sempra's Oncor subsidiary is expected to increase its capital plan by 40-50%. These investments, under regulatory constructs, ensure that every dollar invested yields an authorised rate of return, accelerating earnings growth.
[00:05:54] How did the transportation sector perform?
In 2024, the performance of toll roads or motorways in the portfolio was mixed. Ferrovial, for example, had a strong year with its key motorway asset in Toronto, Canada, benefiting from toll price increases and strategic asset sales, which boosted its share price. On the other hand, Vinci, a French-based company, faced challenges due to political instability and fiscal pressures in France, which impacted its performance despite reasonable underlying revenue trends and valuations.
Airports also showed decent performance, with continued capacity and passenger growth post-pandemic. Markets geared towards personal and leisure travel, such as those served by the Spanish company Aena, saw strong performance. Key assets like Madrid and Barcelona airports led to upgraded guidance throughout the year, supporting share prices. Overall, the sector's performance varied, but there were notable successes driven by strategic decisions and market conditions.
[00:08:42] Could you discuss the recent performance of power companies and oil and gas energy infrastructure, and explain how their success has impacted our relative performance, given that we exclude these sectors due to their exposure to fluctuating prices and competition?
There were a couple of negative influences on our relative performance, both of which we exclude from our investable universe. The first is the power companies, specifically the merchant and unregulated companies in the US. These companies have performed exceptionally well due to the dramatic growth in data centres, which require significant power supply. They have been able to command premium pricing by providing solutions such as reopening or extending the life of nuclear assets and delaying the retirement of gas plants. This has led to a tighter supply for power, with forward pricing in recent auctions increasing by up to 50%. However, we expect the supply-demand market to normalise over time as regulated utility companies catch up in adding capacity and data centre growth slows down.
The second negative influence is the oil and gas pipeline sector, which has seen strong performance driven by volume growth rather than price increases. This is due to continued demand from gas-fired power plants and robust growth in the LNG export market. Additionally, some stocks in this sector have benefited from the recent US elections, with President-elect Trump running on a fossil fuel-friendly platform. These factors have contributed to the sector's success, impacting our relative performance as we exclude these companies from our investments.
[00:12:06] What opportunities lie ahead in the infrastructure sector?
There are promising opportunities in the airport sector, with robust demand despite cost of living pressures. Aircraft load factors remain high, indicating that capacity has not fully returned due to manufacturing issues at Boeing and Airbus. Only about 1,250 planes were delivered this year, far below expectations, with a backlog of around 17,000 planes. This situation is expected to improve over the next two to three years, increasing capacity, reducing ticket prices, and boosting passenger volumes, especially at leisure-focused airports.
Political instability in France has created some caution, as it could impact share prices despite the sector appearing cheap. In the utility space, European utilities are generally undervalued, while the US market is more mixed, with pockets of overvaluation and undervaluation. The focus is on capitalising on these mispricings by targeting undervalued stocks with short-term issues that are reflected in long-term share prices.
[00:13:50] What are the risks to consider for the infrastructure sector?
Infrastructure investments typically offer stable and predictable earnings, so economic outlooks aren't the main concern for investors. Instead, interest rate volatility has been a significant factor, with rates fluctuating due to inflation cooling and central banks cutting rates, followed by increases after Donald Trump's election.
While the businesses themselves are generally well-protected from these changes, share prices can be impacted by short-term interest rate movements. Valuations currently seem reasonable, but the unpredictability of rate changes remains a concern.
Another key risk is the social license and sovereign risk, particularly in the context of rising living costs. Governments under financial pressure may target companies that aren't in good standing, such as some French motorway companies, by imposing taxes. Effective risk management involves identifying and pricing these risks to avoid overpaying. Despite these challenges, accurately pricing these risks can also create investment opportunities.
In summary, while there are some risks to monitor, we expect infrastructure investments to deliver returns of inflation plus 4-5% over the medium to long term. Despite market fluctuations, the stable nature of infrastructure supports consistent earnings and wealth growth. We remain confident in these strategies and welcome any questions you may have about the Magellan infrastructure strategies.
Important Information: This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice of any kind and you should not construe the contents of this material as legal, tax, investment or other advice. In making an investment decision, you should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and must rely on your own examination of the same and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision.
The investment program of the strategy or strategies presented herein (‘Strategy’) is speculative and may involve a high degree of risk. The Strategy is not intended as a complete investment program and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear the risk of loss. The Strategy may lack diversification, which can increase the risk of loss to investors. The Strategy’s performance may be volatile. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of the Strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs and such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. This material may contain ‘forward-looking statements’. Actual events or results or the actual performance of the Strategy or any financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. The Strategy will have limited liquidity, no secondary market for interests in the Strategy is expected to develop and there are restrictions on an investor’s ability to withdraw and transfer interests in the Strategy. The management fees, incentive fees and allocation and other expenses of the Strategy will reduce trading profits, if any, or increase losses.
No representation or warranty is made with respect to the correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. No guarantee is made that such information is accurate, complete or timely and no warranty is given regarding results obtained from its use. The issuer of this material and its related entities and affiliates will not be responsible or liable for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, including loss of profits, damages, costs, claims or expenses, relating to or arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material including trading losses, loss of opportunity or incidental or punitive damages.
This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part in any circumstances. , Further information regarding any benchmark referred to herein can be found at www.magellaninvestmentpartners.com/funds/benchmark-information/. Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. (080825-#i1)
United Kingdom: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners and is distributed in the United Kingdom by Magellan Investment Partners (UK) Limited (FRN: 1037936), an appointed representative of Sentinel Regulatory Services Ltd (FRN: 1007093) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity under the provisions of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). This material does not form part of any offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for, or any solicitation of any such offer to purchase, sell or subscribe for, any shares, units or other type of investment product or service. This material or any part of it, or the fact of its distribution, is for background purposes only. This material has not been approved by a person authorised under the FSMA and its distribution in the United Kingdom and is only being made to persons in circumstances that will not constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of section 21 of the FSMA as a result of an exemption contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO) as set out below. This material is exempt from the restrictions in the FSMA as it is to be strictly communicated only to ‘investment professionals’ as defined in Article 19(5) of the FPO.
United States: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’) which is a registered investment adviser. The investment strategies described herein are distributed in the United States by Frontier Partners, Inc. (‘Frontier’), a U.S.-registered investment adviser. For the purposes of the US Securities Act 1933, Magellan and Frontier are affiliated entities. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, financial instrument or product or to provide financial services. It is not the intention of Magellan to create legal relations on the basis of information provided herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Where performance figures are shown net of fees charged to clients, the performance has been reduced by the amount of the highest fee charged to any client employing that particular strategy during the period under consideration. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. Fees are available upon request and also may be found in Part II of Magellan’s Form ADV.
Canada: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’). Magellan is not registered in any province in Canada. The head office of Magellan is in Sydney, Australia and all or substantially all of its assets are situated outside of Canada. Due to the foregoing, there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against Magellan.
South Africa: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners, who in accordance with FAIS Notice 55 of 2023 issued by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, Magellan Investment Partners is exempted from section 7(1) of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (Act No. 37 of 2002). This material is not an offer in terms of Chapter 4 of the Companies Act, 2008.
UAE: This material has been produced by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners. This material is not for distribution to any other person. This material, and the information contained herein, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (‘UAE’) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Any offer of securities or financial services is made only to a limited number of exempt Professional Investors in the UAE who fall under one of the following categories: federal or local governments, government institutions and agencies, or companies wholly owned by any of them. No securities or services have been approved by or licensed or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Securities and Commodities Authority, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the UAE (the ‘Authorities’). The Authorities assume no liability for any investment that the named addressee makes as a Professional Investor. This material is for the use of the named addressee only and should not be given or shown to any other person (other than employees, agents or consultants in connection with the addressee’s consideration thereof). Other jurisdictions: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners.
No distribution of this material will be made in any jurisdiction where such distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. This material does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such an offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. (080825-#W17)